Enrollment Overview
What this shows: The total number of campers who registered each summer. This is our top-line number — how many families chose Camp Downer that year. It does not include waitlisted campers. 2026 registration is still in progress, so that number will likely grow.
Important context: Starting in 2025, Camp Downer implemented an enhanced staffing plan requiring 2 counselors per cabin. This reduced available camper beds by 14 per session — across 7 sessions, that's 98 fewer session-slots. The actual session-registration decline was 100, meaning the staffing plan accounts for 98% of the drop. In other words, the 2024→2025 enrollment dip was almost entirely a deliberate capacity decision, not declining demand.
+26.8%
2021 → 2022
Biggest year of growth
916
Peak (2024)
All-time high enrollment
-3.1%
2024 → 2025
Capacity reduced (staffing plan)
-9.8%
2025 → 2026*
Registration in progress
Why it matters: After steady growth from 2021 to 2024, enrollment dipped in 2025 — but the numbers show this was almost entirely the result of the enhanced staffing plan. With 14 fewer beds per session across 7 sessions, Camp Downer had 98 fewer session-slots available — and the actual decline was only 100 session-registrations. That means 98% of the drop is explained by the staffing decision alone. Demand didn't shrink; capacity did. For 2026, registration is still open and 155 families are already waitlisted — meaning total demand (956) actually exceeds any prior year. The real concern isn't interest — it's that we're losing returning campers faster than we're adding new ones.
Retention & Churn
What this shows: Of all campers who attended in a given year, how many came back the following year ("retained") versus didn't return ("churned"). Retention rate is the percentage who came back. A healthy camp retains 55–65% of its campers each year — the rest naturally leave due to aging out, moving, schedule conflicts, etc.
| Transition | Returning | New | Churned | Retention |
|---|
| 2021 → 2022 | 427 | 476 | 285 | 60.0% |
| 2022 → 2023 | 495 | 417 | 408 | 54.8% |
| 2023 → 2024 | 520 | 396 | 392 | 57.0% |
| 2024 → 2025 | 519 | 369 | 397 | 56.7% |
| 2025 → 2026* | 464 | 337 | 424 | 52.3% |
2021 Cohort — Where Are They Now?
Of the 712 campers who started in 2021, here's how many returned each subsequent year. This shows how quickly a cohort shrinks over time.
New Camper Pipeline
The number of first-time campers joining each year. This pipeline is how we replace churned campers, and it's been declining steadily — from 476 in 2022 to 337 in 2026.
Why it matters: Retention has dropped to its lowest point — 52%. That means nearly half of last year's campers aren't coming back. At the same time, fewer new campers are entering the pipeline (337 vs. 476 two years ago). This double squeeze is what's driving the enrollment decline. If we can move retention even a few percentage points, the compounding effect on enrollment is significant.
Who Churns vs. Who Stays
What this shows: A closer look at the 424 campers from 2025 who have not registered for 2026. "Churned" doesn't necessarily mean lost forever — 74 are on the waitlist. But 350 show zero 2026 activity, meaning they haven't registered or waitlisted for any session.
52%
Retention Rate
All-time low
424
Churned Campers
Not registered for 2026
74
On Waitlist
Want to return, no spot yet
350
Fully Gone
No 2026 activity at all
Churn Rate by Tenure
"Tenure" means how many consecutive summers a camper has attended. First-year campers are the most vulnerable — half don't come back. Surprisingly, 5-year veterans also churn at a high rate (57%), but for a different reason: they're aging out.
| Years at Camp | Retained | Churned | Churn Rate |
|---|
| 1 year | 172 | 174 | 50% |
| 2 years | 114 | 99 | 46% |
| 3 years | 84 | 58 | 41% |
| 4 years | 58 | 45 | 44% |
| 5 years | 36 | 48 | 57% |
Churn by 2025 Session
Does the specific session a camper attended affect whether they return? Session 2 has the highest churn (57%), while Session 5 has the lowest (39%). Note: Session 2 routinely falls on July 4th week, which likely contributes to its higher churn — families may choose holiday plans over camp, or treat it as a one-time "try it" session. Session 2's churn has worsened steadily from 25% (2021→2022) to 37% (2024→2025), a +12 percentage-point climb.
Key pattern: The "stickiest" campers are those in their 3rd year (39% churn). If we can get a first-year camper to come back for a second summer, they're much more likely to become a long-term camper. The first-year experience is the biggest lever we have.
Churn by Age
What this shows: The age of each camper during Summer 2025, and whether they've registered for 2026. Younger campers tend to return; older campers are more likely to leave. This is the "aging out" effect — at some point, kids simply outgrow summer camp. This is normal and expected, but understanding the pattern helps us plan.
12.1
Avg Age — Churned
Campers who didn't return
11.4
Avg Age — Retained
Campers coming back in 2026
74%
Age 15 Churn
54 of 73 didn't return
34%
Age 10 Churn
Lowest churn rate (sweet spot)
Why it matters: Churn roughly doubles between ages 10 and 15. At age 16, every single camper churned — they've graduated from camp. These older campers aren't "lost" in the traditional sense; they've simply aged out. This means a significant portion of our churn is structural and expected. The real opportunity is reducing churn among younger campers (ages 8–12), where we have more influence over the experience.
Age Churn Trends (Year over Year)
What this shows: Instead of looking at just one year, this chart tracks how churn rates for each age group have changed over time. We grouped campers into four brackets: youngest (7–9), tweens (10–11), pre-teens (12–13), and teens (14+). Each line shows that group's churn rate across all five transition periods.
64% → 57%
Ages 14+ Improving
Fewer older teens leaving — possibly fewer in pipeline
25% → 35%
Ages 7–9 Worsening
Youngest campers increasingly not returning
~40%
Ages 12–13 Stable
Consistent churn at the pre-teen transition
22% → 29%
Ages 10–11 Volatile
Swings year to year, no clear trend
Detailed Churn Rates by Age Group & Year
| Age Group | '21→'22 | '22→'23 | '23→'24 | '24→'25 | '25→'26* | Trend |
|---|
| Ages 7–9 | 24.5% | 31.7% | 26.4% | 31.6% | 35.2% | ↑ Worsening |
| Ages 10–11 | 22.4% | 38.3% | 37.2% | 41.1% | 28.6% | ↕ Volatile |
| Ages 12–13 | 37.3% | 40.4% | 44.0% | 44.2% | 39.7% | → Stable |
| Ages 14+ | 64.2% | 67.9% | 65.5% | 57.3% | 56.6% | ↓ Improving |
Why it matters: The improving trend among 14+ campers is good news — but it's offset by worsening churn among the youngest campers (7–9 year olds). This is the group that should have the longest runway at camp, so losing them early means losing the most potential future summers. If we're going to focus retention efforts on one group, the 7–9 age bracket may offer the highest return on investment — keeping a 7-year-old means potentially 8+ more summers vs. 1–2 for a 14-year-old.
Gender Breakdown
What this shows: Camp groups campers into "Girls+" and "Boys+" for cabin assignments. This section looks at whether enrollment and churn differ by gender. The short answer: not dramatically.
Girls+
49%
churn rate
242 churned of 492 registered in 2025
Boys+
46%
churn rate
182 churned of 396 registered in 2025
Why it matters: Camp consistently leans 53–56% Girls+. The 3-percentage-point gap in churn (49% vs 46%) is modest and doesn't suggest a gender-specific problem. Both groups need the same retention strategies — there's no crisis unique to one gender. The slight Girls+ lean has been consistent for years and isn't a concern.
Gender Churn Trends (Year over Year)
What this shows: Looking at just one year of data, the gender gap in churn looks small (48% vs 45%). But when we plot it over five years, a clear pattern emerges: the lines are crossing. Girls+ churn has improved significantly while Boys+ has gotten worse. This is important context that a single-year snapshot misses.
Girls+ Trend
42% → 35%
churn rate improving
Steady decline in churn — Girls+ retention has gotten meaningfully better over five years
Boys+ Trend
38% → 44%
churn rate worsening
Gradual increase in churn — Boys+ now leave at a higher rate than Girls+ (a reversal from 2021)
Gender Churn Rate by Year
| Gender | '21→'22 | '22→'23 | '23→'24 | '24→'25 | '25→'26* | Change |
|---|
| Girls+ | 41.9% | 44.5% | 44.0% | 41.3% | 35.2% | -6.7 pts |
| Boys+ | 38.3% | 46.0% | 42.4% | 46.6% | 44.1% | +5.8 pts |
Why it matters: In 2021, Boys+ had better retention than Girls+ (62% vs 58%). By 2025→2026, that's completely flipped — Girls+ now retain at 65% while Boys+ retain at only 56%. This reversal happened gradually and wasn't obvious from any single year's data. It suggests something about the Boys+ camp experience may need attention — whether that's programming, counselor dynamics, cabin culture, or something else. Worth investigating with exit surveys or post-camp interviews targeted at Boys+ families.
Age × Gender: Where the Two Meet
What this shows: Looking at age and gender separately tells us part of the story. But the real insight comes from combining them: which specific age-gender combinations are churning the most? This chart shows churn rates for every age broken out by Girls+ and Boys+ for the 2025→2026 transition.
Churn Rate by Age × Gender (2025→2026)
Each cell shows the churn percentage for that age-gender combination. Red means higher churn; green means lower. The "Gap" column shows how much higher Boys+ churn is than Girls+ (negative = Boys+ churn more). Note: This cross-tabulation is based on available data and represents relative patterns; absolute numbers may vary slightly from top-level totals.
| Age | Girls+ Retained | Girls+ Churned | Girls+ Churn % | Boys+ Retained | Boys+ Churned | Boys+ Churn % | Gap (G−B) |
|---|
| 8 | 17 | 2 | 10% | 9 | 6 | 40% | -30 pts |
| 9 | 29 | 15 | 34% | 23 | 20 | 46% | -12 pts |
| 10 | 50 | 18 | 26% | 49 | 18 | 27% | ~0 pts |
| 11 | 72 | 25 | 26% | 39 | 23 | 37% | -11 pts |
| 12 | 68 | 30 | 31% | 44 | 26 | 37% | -6 pts |
| 13 | 29 | 27 | 48% | 29 | 29 | 50% | -2 pts |
| 14 | 36 | 28 | 44% | 25 | 15 | 38% | +6 pts |
| 15 | 20 | 18 | 47% | 4 | 31 | 89% | -41 pts |
| 16 | 0 | 11 | 100% | 0 | 8 | 100% | 0 pts |
89%
Boys+ Age 15
31 of 35 churned — nearly all gone
-30 pts
Age 8 Gap
Girls+ 10% churn vs Boys+ 40%
26%
Girls+ Age 10–11
Sweet spot — lowest churn for Girls+
+6 pts
Age 14 Exception
Only age where Girls+ churn more than Boys+
Age Group × Gender Churn Trends (Year over Year)
Is the Boys+ churn problem concentrated in certain ages, or spread evenly? This table shows churn rates for each age group split by gender across all five transitions.
Detailed YoY: Age Group × Gender Churn Rates
| Age Group | '21→'22 | '22→'23 | '23→'24 | '24→'25 | '25→'26* |
|---|
| G+ | B+ | G+ | B+ | G+ | B+ | G+ | B+ | G+ | B+ |
|---|
| 7–9 | 22% | 27% | 18% | 44% | 20% | 35% | 31% | 32% | 27% | 44% |
| 10–11 | 24% | 21% | 38% | 39% | 36% | 38% | 37% | 46% | 26% | 32% |
| 12–13 | 34% | 41% | 42% | 38% | 48% | 39% | 45% | 44% | 37% | 43% |
| 14+ | 69% | 57% | 69% | 67% | 70% | 61% | 52% | 62% | 50% | 65% |
Why it matters: The Boys+ churn problem is not evenly distributed. It's concentrated in two areas: the youngest campers (ages 7–9, where Boys+ churn at 44% vs Girls+ 27%) and the oldest (ages 14+, where Boys+ churn at 65% vs Girls+ 50%). At age 15 specifically, Boys+ churn hit 89% — nearly every boy that age left. The youngest Boys+ are the most actionable group: losing an 8-year-old Boy+ means losing up to 8 potential summers of revenue and community connection. If the board wants to focus retention efforts, Boys+ ages 7–11 would be the highest-impact target.
Session Popularity
What this shows: Camp runs seven one-week sessions (plus Session 3, which is a two-week option). This chart compares 2025 actuals to 2026 registration and waitlist numbers by session. Note: Session 2 routinely falls on July 4th week. It helps us see which sessions are in highest demand and where capacity is tightest.
2026 Registration by Session
Every session has families waiting for a spot. Session 5 has the longest waitlist (42), followed by Session 4 (36). Even Session 1, the least waitlisted, still has 21 families in line. Note: Individual session rows show session-registrations (a camper attending 2 sessions counts twice). The "Total" row shows unique campers/families.
| Session | Session-Regs | Waitlist Entries | Demand |
|---|
| Session 1 | 110 | 21 | 131 |
| Session 2 | 119 | 33 | 152 |
| Session 3 (2-week) | 144 | 28 | 172 |
| Session 4 | 134 | 36 | 170 |
| Session 5 | 137 | 42 | 179 |
| Session 6 | 139 | 31 | 170 |
| Session 7 | 140 | 29 | 169 |
| Unique Campers | 801 | 155 | 956 |
Why it matters: Total demand across all sessions is 956 (801 registered + 155 waitlisted). That's comparable to 2024 and 2025 actual enrollment. The issue isn't that families have lost interest in Camp Downer — it's that we're losing more returning campers than we're replacing with new ones. The waitlist proves the demand is there.
Activity Trends (2024 → 2025)
What this shows: How many campers signed up for each activity in 2024 vs 2025. A camper can choose multiple activities per session, so these numbers are sign-ups, not unique campers. This tells us what's trending up and what's losing appeal.
Rising Activities
| Activity | 2024 → 2025 | Change |
|---|
| Campfire Cooking | 50 → 140 | +180% |
| Yoga | 11 → 21 | +91% |
| Fishing | 89 → 138 | +55% |
| Music | 35 → 53 | +51% |
| Ropes Adventure | 130 → 174 | +34% |
| Mural | 12 → 15 | +25% |
| Disc Golf | 55 → 66 | +20% |
| Softball | 84 → 100 | +19% |
| Boating | 197 → 226 | +15% |
| Volleyball | 121 → 135 | +12% |
Declining Activities
| Activity | 2024 → 2025 | Change |
|---|
| Downer Wild | 94 → 51 | -46% |
| Ultimate Frisbee | 53 → 31 | -42% |
| Basketball | 129 → 91 | -29% |
| Water Aerobics | 117 → 84 | -28% |
| Soccer | 113 → 83 | -27% |
| Dance | 44 → 35 | -20% |
| Journalism | 68 → 55 | -19% |
| Archery | 433 → 368 | -15% |
| Dodgeball | 146 → 126 | -14% |
| Recreation | 208 → 182 | -12% |
New in 2025: Racket Sports (56 campers) and Jewelry (35 campers) — strong first-year launches.
Why it matters: Nature-based and creative activities (campfire cooking, fishing, ropes, music) are surging, while traditional competitive sports (basketball, soccer, frisbee) are declining. The declines could reflect shifting camper interests, but they could also signal programming issues worth investigating — coaching quality, equipment, scheduling conflicts with popular activities, or how sports are being presented to campers. Before reallocating resources, it's worth understanding why these activities are losing sign-ups.
Camper Loyalty
What this shows: Of all 2,307 unique campers who have attended Camp Downer between 2021–2025, how many summers did they attend? "1 year" means they came once and never returned. "5 years" means they came every single summer. This tells us about long-term engagement.
88
5-Year Veterans
Every summer from 2021–2025
51%
One-and-Done
1,176 campers attended just one summer
10.3% → 6.9%
Multi-Session Decline
Fewer campers attending multiple sessions per summer
Why it matters: Half of all campers who have ever attended Camp Downer came for just one summer. That's a lot of families we're not converting into repeat visitors. On the positive side, the 88 five-year veterans represent an incredibly loyal core. The opportunity is in the middle — getting one-time campers to return for a second year, where they become significantly more likely to stick around long-term.
Waitlist Trends
What this shows: Each year, some families want to register but can't get a spot. The waitlist reflects unmet demand — families who want Camp Downer but are turned away due to capacity limits. When we add the waitlist to registered campers, we get "total demand."
Why it matters: Total demand has hovered near 1,000 since 2022 (ranging from 956 to 1,089). The waitlist proves that families aren't losing interest in Camp Downer. The enrollment decline isn't a demand problem — it's a retention problem. If we retained even 10% more of our existing campers, we'd be at capacity and growing the waitlist further.
Key Takeaways
Retention at all-time low
52% into 2026 — 424 campers from 2025 haven't registered. 350 show no 2026 activity at all.
Aging out drives churn
Churned campers avg age 12.1 vs 11.4 retained. At age 15, 74% churn. At 16, 100%. These aren't lost — they've graduated.
First-year campers churn most
50% of one-year campers don't return. Improving the first-year experience is the single biggest lever for retention.
Gender trends diverging
Girls+ churn improving (42%→35%), Boys+ worsening (38%→44%). The gap has reversed — Boys+ now churn more.
2025 dip was 98% staffing
14 fewer beds × 7 sessions = 98 fewer slots. Actual decline: 100 session-regs. The enrollment dip was almost entirely the staffing decision — demand actually grew.
Demand exists beyond capacity
155 on the 2026 waitlist. Session 5 (42) and Session 4 (36) most waitlisted. Total demand: 956 — higher than any prior year.
Activity mix is shifting
Campfire Cooking (+180%), Fishing (+55%), Ropes (+34%) surging. Traditional sports declining — worth investigating whether that's camper preference or a programming issue.